Where's Your Money For The Irish Grand National
The Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse has been a minefield for punters and this year's renewal on Bank Holiday Monday (4.55) looks no exception.
Winning favourites are rare and you have to back to Omerta in 1991 to find the last outright market leader to oblige, and even Glebe Lad, the winner in 1999, was one of five co-favourites! And it's not getting any easier with five of the last seven winners priced at 20/1 or bigger (three at 33/1). To make matters worse, the ante post favourite Beautiful Sound is not a guaranteed runner even at this late stage and as second reserve will need a couple of the 28 declared runners to come out overnight. If he does get a run, he would have a great chance off his low weight and on ground he likes, but that's a big 'if'.
In his absence, the poisoned chalice of favouritism is likely to be passed to Prince Erik, who has always had plenty of ability - sixth in the Irish Derby and second in last season's Pertemps Final - but has not always looked a natural over fences, although he jumped well enough when winning a novice chase at Naas last time out. This is much tougher, though, and with his stamina for this 3m5f trip unproven, I'm inclined to look elsewhere for the winner.
British stables have won three of the last seven runnings and this year they account for four of the runners. The pick of them looks to be Nicky Henderson's Quantitativeeasing, who is third favourite in most lists. His latest effort when second in the the Centenary Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival came over 2m4f but his half-sister Asian Maze stayed really well and I don't it will be lack of stamina that beats him. With Tony McCoy to do the steering, he's not without a chance.
Willie Mullins has never won this race, which is somewhat surprising given he's won just about everything else in Ireland. This year he relies on three with Ruby Walsh opting to ride long-term absentee and 20/1 shot Shakervilz. Given he could have ridden the shorter-priced Some Target, who looked like he would benefit from stronger handling when a never-nearer fifth in the four miler at Cheltenham and is still unexposed over this sort of distance, that might be a tip in itself. Shakervilz has been off the track for 367 days but if anyone can get one ready after a break it's Mullins.
Another interesting runner is WHATUTHINK, who was a great third 12 months, just half a length behind this year's Grand National runner-up Oscar Time This season hasn't gone to plan as he had to take three months off after a crashing fall in the Becher Chase in November but, as a result, he lines up here a fresh horse and his latest outing when third in a Grade 2 at Navan will have put him spot on. At 14/1 with bet365, who are offering five places instead of the usual four, he looks a rock solid each-way bet.
Given the races history, it would be foolish to discount anything at a bigger price and one who could outrun his odds is the novice HUGHIES GREY. His lack of experience over fences (just seven chase starts) would be a worry in most Nationals but not this one - none of the last 10 winners had raced more than 13 times over fences, with novices accounting for 12 wins since 1974. And he's already won one National when taking the Ulster version at Downpatrick early last month, and has since followed up in a Grade 2 at Navan.
Both of those races were on soft ground and anything faster than good would be an obvious concern for him. However, it's the Irish National and, with safe ground a requisite, I would be amazed if they haven't done a good job of the watering. His regular jockey Michael Darcy is suspended but big-race specialist Robbie Power (second last year on Oscar Time) is an excellent substitute. As for his price, I see Corals are going a standout 25/1 but I'd rather take bet365's 20/1 in the knowledge I'm getting an extra place.
Recommended Bets:
Whatuthink 1pt each-way @ 14/1 bet365 (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5)
Hughies Grey 1pt each-way @ 20/1 bet365 (1/4 odds,1.2.3.4.5)
Posted by Gambling Systems Reviews
